Reporter: A writer who guesses his way to the truth and dispels it with a tempest of words.
Practical observation commonly consists of collecting a few facts and loading them with guesses.
Projections are bullshit. They're just guesses. Wait until the real thing happens and then when it happens, then you can make the decision. Make decisions when you have a lot of information to make the decision. Not when you have to guess about what the decision is going to be or use data that doesn't exist yet.